BUSINESS

China sets a meeting anticipated to disclose details on fiscal stimulus measures

PUBLISHED FRI, OCT 25 2024 5:50 AM EDT

BEIJING — According to state media reports translated by CNBC, China’s parliament is set to hold a highly anticipated meeting from November 4 to 8.

Investors are eagerly awaiting updates from the standing committee of the National People’s Congress, which is expected to provide insights into potential fiscal stimulus measures.

During last year’s meeting in late October, the committee oversaw a rare increase in China’s fiscal deficit, raising it to 3.8% from 3%, as reported by state media.

This upcoming parliamentary session is crucial for China if it intends to make adjustments to the national budget or deficit, noted Bruce Pang, chief economist and head of research for Greater China at JLL. He emphasized that recent Chinese stimulus measures have highlighted the necessity for increased fiscal support.

Earlier this month, China’s Minister of Finance, Lan Fo’an, informed reporters that there was room to raise the deficit and issue additional bonds, mentioning that significant changes would need to be processed before being announced.

His comments followed a late September meeting led by Chinese President Xi Jinping, which emphasized the need to strengthen fiscal and monetary policies.

The People’s Bank of China has already reduced various interest rates and extended support for the real estate sector. Since the late September meetings, Chinese stocks have surged, although trading has become volatile due to a lack of concrete measures.

Pang stated that the upcoming parliamentary meeting should clarify how the budget will be adjusted and outline any planned bond issuances.

Analysts have moderated expectations regarding large-scale fiscal stimulus directly boosting consumption, suggesting that support is more likely to go to struggling local governments first.

China’s economy grew by an annual rate of 4.8% in the first three quarters of the year, slightly below the 5% growth observed in the first half. Beijing is targeting around 5% economic growth for the entirety of 2024.

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